Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 0.650810 0.757363 0.875440 1.015937 1.178519 1.360716 1.580382
2025-02-09 0.485285 0.630054 0.808189 1.043262 1.345158 1.719752 2.219908
2025-02-16 0.391603 0.549568 0.758923 1.056192 1.467070 2.014709 2.800156
2025-02-23 0.325331 0.486522 0.713487 1.055560 1.557418 2.266218 3.343339
2025-03-02 0.274469 0.433787 0.670223 1.045476 1.625165 2.485872 3.860709
2025-03-09 0.237776 0.394882 0.639267 1.045482 1.702558 2.722593 4.425807
2025-03-16 0.200896 0.349251 0.590254 1.008268 1.713659 2.854375 4.838130
2025-03-23 0.189996 0.344291 0.604992 1.074930 1.898846 3.281261 5.775052
2025-03-30 0.164717 0.310620 0.566614 1.045425 1.916189 3.429600 6.256900
2025-04-06 0.142700 0.279475 0.528188 1.009944 1.916918 3.546602 6.693319
2025-04-13 0.124574 0.252926 0.494398 0.977942 1.918694 3.663249 7.138782
2025-04-20 0.114251 0.239970 0.484179 0.988727 2.001088 3.934782 7.901647
2025-04-27 0.110204 0.239386 0.498397 1.050329 2.192038 4.437384 9.178615
2025-05-04 0.103138 0.231637 0.497498 1.081648 2.326987 4.847800 10.324745
2025-05-11 0.095183 0.220803 0.488739 1.095168 2.426263 5.196788 11.384378
2025-05-18 0.086961 0.208158 0.474393 1.094518 2.494587 5.488125 12.353823
2025-05-25 0.078930 0.194795 0.456720 1.084069 2.539752 5.734485 13.252819
2025-06-01 0.072552 0.184418 0.444398 1.084075 2.608030 6.037656 14.311261
2025-06-08 0.064351 0.168444 0.417107 1.045512 2.582296 6.127947 14.893941
2025-06-15 0.063554 0.170881 0.433788 1.114591 2.819691 6.843849 17.017535
2025-06-22 0.057105 0.157873 0.411214 1.084017 2.811153 6.983884 17.779269
2025-06-29 0.051040 0.145016 0.387398 1.047248 2.782603 7.072490 18.424440
2025-07-06 0.045805 0.133672 0.366027 1.014086 2.759139 7.170591 19.103968